Dear Valued Clients and Partners

 As we hit mid-October 2025, the national CRE landscape shows cautious optimism amid stabilizing rates and rebounding investment volumes. With Bank of Canada holding steady at 4.25% and inflation cooling to 2.1%, commercial mortgage rates hover at 5.5-6.5% for prime deals—creating windows for savvy investors in multifamily, industrial, and retail sectors. This edition dives into key updates for Calgary’s cooling multifamily scene, Winnipeg’s growth-fueled momentum, and Ontario’s transitional volatility. Whether you’re eyeing Calgary commercial real estate investment opportunities or Ontario commercial property financing trends, we’ve got actionable takeaways.

Calgary: Multifamily Slowdown Signals Value Plays

Calgary’s CRE market is adjusting to a post-boom reality, with multifamily developers pivoting amid rising vacancies (now at 4.5%) and softening rents. According to RENX, developers are delaying projects and focusing on value-add acquisitions to counter the slowdown—ideal for commercial mortgage borrowers seeking lower entry points.

• Key Stat: Housing starts hit a record 18,632 in the first eight months of 2025 (up 21% YoY), per Calgary Herald, boosting supply but pressuring short-term NOI.
• Mortgage Angle: Expect DSCR thresholds to ease to 1.20x for stabilized assets; Boardwalk REIT’s recent operational update highlights capital allocation toward Alberta multifamily, signaling lender confidence.
• Outlook: Recovery momentum builds per CBRE’s 2025 Canada Outlook, with investment sales up 15% QoQ—prime time for bridge financing in retail/office hybrids.

For Calgary commercial mortgage rates 2025, lock in now before Q4 inventory surges further.

Winnipeg: Steady Gains Amid Population Boom

Winnipeg’s CRE sector is firing on all cylinders, driven by 2.5% population growth and renewed energy in industrial/retail. REMAX’s 2025 report notes sustained traction, with average sales prices projected to rise 3-5% through year-end—making it a hotspot for low-volume commercial mortgage deals.

• Highlight: CBRE’s latest Winnipeg market reports show office vacancies dipping to 8.2% and industrial absorption at 1.2M sq ft in Q3, fueled by logistics demand.
• Financing Tip: Commercial mortgage lenders are favoring 70-75% LTV on multifamily, with rates dipping to 5.25% for strong-credit borrowers amid Altus Group’s Q2 CRE trends showing $11.7B national volume.
• Watch: Fall 2025 housing updates from CMHC predict modest ground-oriented starts, spilling positivity into mixed-use CRE.

Winnipeg CRE investment opportunities shine for diversified portfolios—pair with green retrofits for better terms.

Ontario: Transitional Tides with Industrial Strength

Ontario’s CRE remains volatile but transitional, with prices down 5-7% from 2024 peaks yet optimistic on policy shifts. Realty Times flags 2025 as a pivot year, where industrial outperforms (availability at 3.1% per Altus Q3 update) amid e-commerce surges, while office lags at 12% vacancy.

• Trend: JPMorgan’s 2025 outlook praises robust industrial growth and steady retail, with national sales rebounding 20-25% per RENX—Ontario leading in GTA multifamily conversions.
• Mortgage Insights: Expect debt yields at 10-12% for riskier assets; CBRE forecasts stronger financing as capital sidelined hits $50B market-wide.
• Opportunity: Policy tweaks (e.g., streamlined zoning) open doors for commercial property investment trends in Toronto and Ottawa—target 65% LTV for quick closes.

Ontario real estate financing trends favor adaptive reuse projects; consult for stress-tested appraisals.

Final Thoughts: Seize the Rebound. Across these markets, 2025’s CRE recovery hinges on selective financing—prioritize NOI stability and ESG factors for competitive commercial mortgage terms. Stay ahead: Connect with us for personalized rate quotes. Until next month, invest wisely.

Sources: CBRE, REMAX, Altus Group, RENX (October 2025 data). Not financial advice.

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